It Will Get Worse if We Do Nothing
Tariffs, trade wars, prices of farm products, unemployment and the economy in general will get worse if we do nothing. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
Last week I was talking about Trump's tariffs with someone who was under the impression that Trump was simply retaliating for excessive tariffs imposed by China. Although that's what the Trump administration implied they were doing, it obviously wasn't. There was no mathematical basis for bumping tariffs on goods from China to 145 percent.
The formula used to kick off the global tariff fiasco was to take the trade deficit of the United States with a given country, divide that by its exports to this country, and divide that figure by two. How did they arrive at that formula? Who knows? However, a trade deficit doesn't equal unfair tariffs, and setting high tariffs will not do a thing to alleviate deficits.
Fox News ran with the official line as their header. "Trump says reciprocal tariffs could be re-imposed within weeks." The expert in their video clip, David Tawil, didn't quite match the headline. He cautioned about "serious and real world damage" if the current situation isn't resolved.
Multilateral trade has been around since shortly after WWII. It's basically an agreement that any country who is a signatory to a set of fair trade agreements should refrain from imposing punitive tariffs on exports from a trading partner. Trump's tariffs are punitive. There were 23 countries which signed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade in 1947. The World Trade Organization, successor to GATT, was formed in 1995. Members of the World Trade Organization are all classified as Most Favored Nations for tariff purposes. There are currently 166 members of the WTO. There are agreements on upper limits for tariffs, known as binding. Trump's tariffs are in almost all instances breaking that agreed upon limit.
China joined the WTO in 2001. In order to join and attain the Most Favored Nation designation of other members it had to agree to accept bound tariffs. Trump's proposed tariffs are not "reciprocal." In particular the 145 percent that will be levied against China isn't "reciprocal." China didn't set the first punitive tariff. Donald Trump did. And there can be no way that his proposed levies aren't breaking our WTO agreements.
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade is a treaty. Failure to honor treaties causes problems.
Nobel prize winning economist said of Trump's tariffs "What is clear is that Trump has no economic theory behind what he's doing." As president, he could have any number of knowledgeable advisors. Instead he chooses to rely on his own ideas and expertise. On trade and foreign policy Donald Trump has no expertise, however much he may think he does.
It's past time for Congress to claw back their power to set and control tariffs, before the stock market crashes, before the global economy takes a nosedive, and before the United States becomes isolated through driving away its allies. With the current timid Republican Congress, the only way for that to happen is if they become more afraid of being fired by their constituents than the possibility of being primaried by Elon Musk. If Republican elected officials won't hold town halls, we need to hold them ourselves, with them absent. There needs to be a grassroots effort to primary Republican Congressmen and Senators who are meekly allowing these destructive policies. Right now our representatives are worried about losing their jobs because of Elon Musk's money being used against them. They need to become more worried about their irate constituents voting them out and/or running against them in both the primary and general elections.
This is no longer a Democratic or Republican thing. This is about sending people to Washington who represent the folks who elected them, not the billionaires who finance their campaigns.
One of the reasons Trump supporters voted for him is because they thought he would be better for the economy. He has proven himself to possibly be the worst thing to happen to our financial health in almost a hundred years. Tariffs and the resulting wild stock market swings are only part of the problem. Elon Musk and his DOGE minions have fired or bought out thousands, probably even hundreds of thousands of federal employees. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas there were 216,670 job cuts in the month of March alone from DOGE actions.
The economy is one of the most immediate and pressing issues facing us. It's ultimately not the scariest. When the president of the United States starts talking about sending "homegrown criminals" to a prison in a foreign country it's time to be afraid, but also to stand up and be heard. Again, call your representatives in Washington, let your voice be heard in town halls, join a protest.
One thing we shouldn't do. We shouldn't wait and see if it gets worse. It will if we do nothing.
Thank you for reading. Please feel free to share.
Notes:
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5266321-china-cancels-us-pork-ships/
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/federal-cuts-dominate-march-2025-total-275240-announced-job-cuts-216670-from-doge-actions/
https://www.chinausfocus.com/finance-economy/a-warning-on-chinas-most-favored-nation-status
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/04/22/federal-government-layoff-tracker-state-department-reportedly-cutting-15-of-us-staff-epa-firing-dei-workers/
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-says-reciprocal-tariffs-could-re-imposed-within-weeks